Thursday, October 21, 2004

Feeling A Draft?

Apparently, George Bush believes that getting elected depends on lying to the American people about a military draft. Certainly his perception that a military draft would be perceived negatively by the voters who lives might be disrupted by a draft—the young voters whose turn out in the past several elections has been scant—would seem to be correct given the huge new voter registrations in this age group. So, we assume that George either does not understand that without a draft his options abroad will be severely limited, or that he is lying and will ask for a draft very soon.

The possibility that a draft will not be needed depends on several things being true that appear to be false at the moment. If soldiers were deployed for a year and only a year, then one might hazard a guess that the current mobilization of the volunteer army was "working" well enough to be sustainable. The facts do not support such a claim, however. Reservists are being held over and regular army troops are not being let out of the service at the end of their enlistments. This, virtual draft or whatever you want to call it, is not the way a volunteer army is supposed to operate. So, by definition, things are not going as they should. Moreover, the current strains and abuses cannot be sustained in what Bush sees as an endless war against terrorism.

Reports are frequent enough that the war is not being won, rather it is definitively being lost. Most neutral observers on the ground believe that the sheer presence of American troops is the key to enlistment of an opposition force, among which are persons who are committed not only to ousting American troops from Iraq, but also carrying out a radical, fundamentalist, Taliban-style regime changes throughout the Arab world and the rest of Islam, as well. In fact, the insurgents in Iraq yesterday announced that they were now supporters of Osama bin Ladin. While this might be in some small part true, the fact of the announcement underscores the belief that Bush has created a terror recruiting system by intruding into Iraq without the moral forces at his disposal ... i.e., world opinion agreeing with us ... to carry out the necessary changes effectively.

Bringing our troops home prematurely will vacate our promise to see a stabile regime established in Iraq and in Afghanistan. Leaving them there at the present level of troop strength will promote more insurgency without the means to suppress it. The only thing likely to work, that will allow us to withdraw in an orderly and honest way, is a temporary increase in troops strength ... not necessarily Americans, by the way ... and a realistic set of intermediate goals for the Iraqis to achieve with their new government.

Bush apparently believes that he can continue to promote the idea that everything is working "per plan," that Iraqis are being trained to take care of their own security, and that a draft will be unnecessary. The bald facts disagree. North Korea and Iran might also disagree and might currently be acting on their certain knowledge that the U.S. is currently overextended. If either or both become part of the nuclear weapons family, it will have been George Bush's squandering of our military assets that allowed it to happen.

And, certainly the Darfur region of the Sudan is a clear case of the inability of the U.S. to intervene in a genocide that would otherwise have been squelched forthwith by allied armed forces, ... but not when America is in over its head and completely occupied in Iraq.

That fact is that George simply does not have enough troops on the ground on this planet to conduct the neocon agenda. This is good, of course, because the neocon agenda is insane nonsense! But the fallout from Bush's adherence to these fantasies is Orwellian sophistry, where up becomes down and black becomes white, where truth is mangled by pervasive falsehood!
Bush can continue to boast that a draft is unnecessary but the he cannot hide from the truth. Every month that he carries on with the neocon agenda without a draft the distortions created will become worse and will engender consequences that even with a draft the next President may have difficulty dealing with.

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